Looking At 2021 Tesla Sales Forecasts In the middle of April 2021, I put together forecasts for Tesla sales (deliveries) in the 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, and full year. While other forecasters —
‘s Maarten Vinkhuyzen participated in the fun of forecasting Tesla sales back in the 2nd quarter as well, and. If you averaged his forecast and mine, you’d come very close to Tesla’s eventual delivery total. Using our April forecasts, the average would be 943,539, just 1% above Tesla’s eventual 936,172 deliveries. If you used my October forecast and Maarten’s forecast, the average would be 939,879, which doesn’t even register as a 1% miss.
At the end of it all, above is a chart of my April forecast for 2021 Tesla deliveries, Maarten’s April forecast for 2021, our averaged forecast, my later forecast at the end of Q3, and Tesla’s eventual reported figures .I’m not quite ready to forecast Tesla sales in 2022. There’s clearly a lot up in the air right now — Tesla Giga Berlin and Tesla Giga Austin going online and then ramping up production, arrival and ramp-up of the Tesla Cybertruck, supply chain challenges .
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