The result of the British general election may be the gravest for the future of the United Kingdom
Northern Ireland was carved out of the old Irish province of Ulster a century ago as a home for the two-thirds majority within it who still supported a union with Britain. But over the decades, Catholics — who skew Irish-identifying and nationalist — have steadily increased in number while unionist-leaning Protestants have dwindled. Now, while a firm majority of pensioners are Protestant, a majority of school children are Catholic. The balance is forecast to tip as soon as 2021.
Until this election it was held by Nigel Dodds. Socially conservative, against same-sex marriage and abortion, the DUP's deputy leader and leader in Westminster was deeply suspicious of the potential for Boris Johnson's Brexit Deal to economically differentiate Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom.
West Belfast is a Sinn Féin stronghold, and losing South Belfast and North Belfast leaves unionists just one MP in the city: Gavin Robinson of East Belfast, who was re-elected with the cross-community Alliance Party not far behind him.While the DUP suffered most, arch rivals Sinn Féin did not have a stellar election either, with a decreased vote in many constituencies. Rather, it was the middle ground parties who had the best day.
"There was a Brexit effect. The most pro-Remain parties made the biggest gains," said Matthew O'Toole, who was a spokesman in Downing Street during the Brexit referendum and now writes and commentates on Brexit and current affairs."It signals how Northern Ireland is changing ... nationalists and unionists are going to have to persuade this middle ground who are less interested in identity.
"Unionists will be looking across the water and thinking if Scotland is going to go, then the Union is going to go," said Sarah Creighton, a unionist commentator."That vote coming through in Scotland is going to make a lot of people nervous."Johnson's decisive majority enables his party to return to its default position toward Northern Ireland's unionists: ignoring them.
"I think this is about Brexit, but I also think Northern Ireland's voters are frustrated with the status quo" —Hardcore pro-British loyalists have dubbed this deal"the Betrayal Act" and threatened civil disorder if it passes. But any international clout they had has evaporated along with that of the DUP.
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