Experts are divided over whether Putin's increasingly erratic behavior is a calculated move, or a sign of an emotional and unstable leader.
But now with the status of global pariah, Putin's invoking of his country's nuclear threat has raised alarm at what his actions might be if he felt cornered.spoke to a selection of experts about what they believed could be going through Putin's mind. Their responses varied widely—from those who said his apparent erratic behavior was part of a calculated grand strategy, to others who who believe his increased isolation since the COVID pandemic has made him more emotional and unstable.
"One also has to wonder about the effect of the isolation in which he has lived and worked the past two years, apparently out of concern about COVID.""He sees himself as the recreator of imperial Russia. The thing is with the 'madman' theory, he is playing a bit with that. "The idea that one's opponent is irrational and crazy is enticing, but this idea also can serve an important purpose for an opponent like Putin. An irrational opponent is more unpredictable and can be viewed as more willing to incur absurdly high costs in a conflict.
"Putin is well-versed in history. He clearly believes that he has an opportunity for a historic legacy, one that puts him in line with those figures he cites so frequently in his speeches—Peter the Great and Stalin, among them — both of whom expanded the borders of the Russian or Soviet state at the expense of their neighbors."
"People talk of Putin as this brilliant chess player who skilfully outplays his rivals in the international system. That may have been the case in the past, but I think the better current metaphor for his mindset is poker. Putin is a gambler, and his invasion of Ukraine suggests he is all-in on this hand.
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