To win enough seats to bring about sweeping change, Ms Ardern must secure votes from centrists who are wary of radical ideas
staff ran into a problem after she declared New Zealand free of the coronavirus in June. It was impossible to keep the prime minister on schedule, they griped, because she was constantly mobbed by supporters. Patrons jumped up to applaud her when she went out for dinner. Passers-by hung out of car windows to yell their thanks. At the convention of her party, Labour, one eulogiser declared her “our nation’s saviour”.
All this puts the prime minister on track for a big victory in an election on October 17th. The latest polls suggest that Labour may win 47% of the vote, which would give it 59 seats in the unicameral parliament. It needs 61 seats in the 120-seat chamber for an outright majority—a feat never achieved since New Zealand adopted a proportional voting system in 1996.
This time around, New Zealand First is unlikely to win any seats: it is polling well below the 5% minimum needed to guarantee a seat in parliament. Ms Ardern will not be losing any sleep about that. Winston Peters, New Zealand First’s leader, has obstructed her plans on everything from stronger hate-speech laws to a capital-gains tax. If Ms Ardern falls short of a majority, she will find a more compliant coalition partner in the Greens.
New Zealand’s rebuffing of covid-19 has put paid to that complaint. It helps, too, that the opposition has been in turmoil. National has churned through three leaders since May, and several of its seniors have resigned. Its latest boss, Judith “Crusher” Collins, is trying to look even tougher than Ms Ardern on the virus. She complains that the government allowed covid-19 back into New Zealand because it did not test officials who came into contact with returning travellers.
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