'We’re underselling the potential of a big Republican night,' writes Harry Entern | Analysis
The race for control of the US Senate has dominated news coverage of the midterms. That’s not surprising. The polls are aplenty, the personalities are numerous, and we have a pretty good idea of the races that will determine which party wins the majority. Yet it’s the race for the US House that may be the more interesting one.
If the generic ballot results hold through the election and House Republicans outperform it by as much as they did in 2020, they very likely will end up somewhere in the range of 230 to 242 House seats. Election models by FiveThirtyEight and Jack Kersting, which are based on a bevy of variables, give Republicans about a one-third chance of ending up with at least 230 seats. That’s still better than the chance either model gives Democrats of holding on to the House.
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