Heard on the Street: Unless China’s growth stops slowing, emerging market stocks will struggle to make major gains
By Mike Bird Updated Nov. 4, 2019 5:40 am ET The prospect of a limited truce on trade between China and the U.S. was enough to lift global stocks in October, but even an actual deal—however likely that is—would offer little more than temporary relief for beleaguered emerging markets.
The MSCI EM Index is trailing the MSCI World Index by 10 percentage points this year on a total-return basis. Even once the U.S. is removed from the calculation, EM stock markets are lagging well behind those of the world’s other advanced economies for 2019. There is a similar story for commodity exporters outside Asia, such as Brazil. China accounts for more than a quarter of the South American country’s outward trade, up from more like 2% in 1999. Excluding Asia makes little difference to the underperformance of EM stocks versus their developed-market counterparts this year.
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