Mozambique's elections on Tuesday are expected to be among the most violent since the end of the civil war in 1992
, former guerrilla fighters who are now the main opposition party. After 1992 the end of civil war gave way to a mostly peaceful impasse, wherebywith enough support and fighters to retain influence. But in 2013-14, and again in 2015-16,A peace deal was signed between the two sides in August.
Evidence of chicanery is growing. Opposition presidential candidates have been stopped from holding rallies in some areas. Thousands of election observers have been prevented from registering. Victims of Cyclone Idai, which struck in March, have reportedly been told that if they vote for the opposition they will not get food aid. Dozens of journalists and pro-democracy activists have been harassed, assaulted and detained in recent years. Some, like Matavele, have been killed.
Then there is the second, newer conflict looming over the ballot. In Cabo Delgado, a province in the far north-east, a poorly understood Islamist-linked insurgency has terrorised local people since 2017. It has also led to an influx of private security firms to protect the installations that will tap vast offshore reserves of natural gas. This year 184 people have died in attacks, estimates Jasmine Opperman, an analyst.
Mr Nyusi claims the situation is under control. It is not. Violence has increased since election campaigning officially began on August 31st. On September 23rd ten people were killed in a single attack, which also saw the localThe discovery of gas ought to be great news for Mozambicans, 62% of whom live on less than $1.90 per day . But there is nothing in’s record to suggest that the proceeds will be evenly shared. Nor is there much sign of peaceful democracy.
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