THE 2017 General Election is well remembered for the late Corbyn surge and the SNP’s consequent loss to Labour of seven seats that they assumed…
But what tends to be forgotten is the larger number of seats where Labour came extraordinarily close in 2017 and where the SNP seemed to live a charmed life by coming out on top in what practically amounted to coin-toss results. Airdrie and Shotts was a prime example of that phenomenon.
Voters often punish parties that trigger “unnecessary” by-elections but on that occasion the SNP got away with it, perhaps because they held the vote only a week after the 2021Their margin of victory over Labour was significantly reduced, but their new candidate, Anum Qaisar, held the seat comfortably by around eight percentage points.
An SNP hold would therefore probably require both a national recovery and also a local performance that outperforms the national trend. It’s not a lost cause but a Herculean campaigning and get-out-the-vote effort by SNP supporters will be essential if Qaisar is to have a chance of nudging over the line for a second term.
In spite of the outpouring of grief that followed his death in 1994, the constituency’s voters put sentiment entirely to one side in the by-election to select his replacement and came close to rocking theestablishment to its core by nearly electing an SNP MP in the shape of Kay Ullrich. Never before had they voted for the SNP in anything like such numbers.
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