A comparison of national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions reveals a large difference in present emission estimates. Aligning the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with NGHGIs shows that achieving global mitigation benchmarks becomes harder, requiring earlier net-zero COtiming and lower cumulative emissions. Weakening natural carbon removal processes can also mask land-based removal efforts, potentially turning land-based carbon fluxes into emissions sources by 2100.
Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways .
However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero COtiming and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 210
Paris Agreement Greenhouse Gas Inventories Mitigation Pathways Anthropogenic Emissions Carbon Fluxes Net-Zero Cotiming Cumulative Emissions Carbon Fertilization Emissions Sources
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