What happens next depends on whether the weakness in America's manufacturing sector spreads. So far it has not
have seen several episodes of panic since early 2018, often triggered by developments in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. And in recent months, indicators of economic activity in America have begun to lose momentum. The worst figures are in manufacturing. Growth in the sector almost halted over the summer.
But here too there are spotty indications of trouble. In September an index of service-sector activity showed signs of a slowdown, and growth in new business was the weakest since the index began in 2009. After stripping out employment growth in the rock-steady education and health sectors, private-sector hiring is trending downward as well . Wage growth weakened in September, slipping to 2.9% year-on-year from 3.2% in August.
Yet a repeat performance could be hard to pull off. In 2016, as now, America’s factories were hit by a worldwide manufacturing slowdown and a slump in global trade. Then, in 2017, trade recovered strongly as China’s government sought to pep up domestic growth. American exports to China, which shrank in 2015 and 2016, surged in 2017. Barring a miraculous resolution of the trade war, nothing similar is likely this time round.
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