Analysis: FTX_Official's TRUMPLOSE token on its balance sheet isn't part of a sinister conspiracy, but rather a holdover from its 2020 election prediction market. thesamreynolds reports
During the U.S. election, FTX ran a series of prediction markets where traders could purchase TRUMPWIN or TRUMPLOSE tokens that would resolve to $1 should Trump have won or lost, or, resolve to $0 if the opposite should occur.
Pollsters got the 2016 election dead wrong, and many thought that prediction markets would be a better source of alpha for the 2020 election. “There are 25 or more years of data that show prediction markets do a better job predicting outcomes than polls,” Dr. Emile Servan-Schreiber, founder and CEO of Lumenogic and an expert in prediction markets,There was also a general TRUMP perpetual contract, which had the shape and feel of a crypto perpetual that FTX was famous for. Like the tokens, should Trump have won, it would have risen to $1, and when he lost, it fell to $0.
With such a turbulent election, the token moved fast and hard. Performance at the debates moved its price in real-time, as did announcements like Trump’s Covid diagnosis.the Covid announcement.
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