Analysis: Here is the Bob Baffert horse that will win the Kentucky Derby
Trainer Bob Baffert, who has three Kentucky Derby hopefuls, watches on the track during a workout at Churchill Downs. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for The Washington Post Email Bio Follow May 1 at 10:13 AM
Officially, every racehorse’s birthday is Jan. 1, so a horse that is born, or foaled, in May will be racing against other 3-year-olds born in June despite there being a one-month difference in actual age. How significant is a one-month difference? It’s huge. In addition, the past eight Derby winners entered on the first Saturday in May came in fresh off a victory and 42 of the past 43 winners were sharp in their last prep race , with the past 68 winners having all raced at 1⅛ miles before trying the classic 1¼-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Plus Que Parfait, War of Will, Long Range Toddy and Gray Magician all get at least one strike against them.
Plus Que Parfait, the winner of the UAE Derby, doesn’t have history on his side, either: since 2000, the best Kentucky Derby finish by a UAE Derby runner has been fifth . The last foreign-bred to win the Derby was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. The last foreign-bred to produce a top-three finish in the Derby was Bold Arrangement in 1986. Neither bodes well for Master Fencer.
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