Russian leader Vladimir Putin has secured some wins in his confrontation with the West over Ukraine, but it's too early to discern an end to a crisis that could yet morph into a new Cold War even if conflict is averted, Kremlin watchers said.
The United States has rubbished Moscow's assertion it was partially pulling back troops massed near Ukraine, saying that Russia was instead still building them up and remained positioned for an imminent invasion if it chose.Moscow, which denies that, accuses the West of ignoring its key security demands, but top diplomat Sergei Lavrov told Putin on Monday to allow more time for diplomacy even as Putin said he did not want to be dragged into tortuous negotiations.
"Of course this is not exactly what Russia wanted, but I think realistically speaking this is what Russia could have expected to get," Kortunov said.To be sure, Russia's build-up near Ukraine - which Biden estimated at more than 150,000 troops on Tuesday - has entailed reputational costs, galvanised NATO, and seen Ukraine receive a flood of military aid.
Sir John Sawers, the former head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service, told the BBC on Wednesday that the crisis could be at a turning point, though he said Putin still had various military options in Ukraine. Recognising those self-proclaimed republics would derail the peace process based around the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements to end the fighting.Fesenko said that, even if Russia did ease the crisis by pulling back troops now, Moscow could easily move them back again rapidly as it did last spring.
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