Analysis: Elected officials from safer seats are more likely to hold extreme ideological positions, meaning that a Boebert should be more moderate than a Greene. But over the past 50 years, House Republicans moved right regardless of how safe their seat.
What’s shown is the margin in each House contest, from the biggest margin for Democrats to the biggest margin for Republicans . From left to right, we have a measure of ideology, from most liberal to most conservative. So a dot at top right is a very conservative Republican member of the House who won by a wide margin. The dots are colored by year, from red to yellow to blue, showing movement from 1976 to 2022 elections.
What you really want to notice, though, is the jump that occurs in the top half of the graph. The dots move from near the middle of the chart to the right . There’s a condensing among the Democrats, but not the same jump. That correlation is boosted because of the consistency between Democratic politics and liberal ideology and so on. If we look only at the correlation within the two parties, there’s a divide: The correlation for Democrats in 2022 was about three times the value for Republicans — because Democrats were more likely to be more liberal if they represented more Democratic seats.In 2022, the average ideology score of a Democrat who won his or her seat by more than 55 points was -0.492.
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