Analysis: The undeniable U.S. hand in Brazil’s anti-democratic riot
But the scenes also reflect the limits of Bolsonaro’s appeal and capacity.
While there are suspicions over the extent to which elements of the security forces tolerated or even abetted the protesters’ incursions, weeks of demonstrations against Lula’s election didn’t move any levers of the state. “The Bolsonaro people had really studied January 6 and the conclusion that they came to was that Trump failed because he relied on a mob and that he had no institutional support,” Tom Shannon, a former U.S.
. “Because of this, the Bolsonaro people worked hard to try to build that institutional support, but they failed. Which says a lot about Brazilian democracy and Brazilian institutions in a very positive way.”Unlike Trump two years ago, Bolsonaro was nowhere near the scenes of violence, but in the United States, hanging out in a Florida suburb not far from Disney World. He delivered no speeches, riling up the crowds to march on the halls of power.
“His silence was terrible,” Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist at the research institute Fundação Getulio Vargas, told my colleagues. “It signaled to a part of his followers that are more ideological that he is supporting them, that they are doing what their big boss can’t do. His silence was the major spark that lit the protests that are now happening.”
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