Analysis: Trump’s election may have been even less about the economy than we thought
President Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the Van Andel Arena on March 28 in Grand Rapids, Mich. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow April 12 at 4:45 PM A central rationale for President Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 was his appeal to working-class white voters, particularly in Rust Belt states where he promised to resurrect the sagging manufacturing economy.
But still that association with working-class white voters persisted, in part, because Trump’s support from those voters was so robust. If it wasn’t about the economy, what was it about? Twenty years ago, working-class whites were about as likely to identify as Democrats as Republicans, while college-educated whites were much more likely to identify as Republicans. The two groups moved mostly in tandem for the next few years, according to Gallup, until 2006. That year, a year when Democrats regained the House, both college-educated and non-college-educated white voters were slightly more Democratic than Republican.
In 2016, college-educated white voters were about split between the two parties. Since, they’ve grown much more Democratic, in part thanks to quickly eroding support for Republicans among white college-educated women. White working-class voters have gotten steadily more Republican since 2006.
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