Analysis: What does it mean for the battle for the House now that a Republican won a Democratic-held seat in California?
Republicans just flipped a Democratic-held House seat in California this week in a closely watched special election.after Republican Mike Garcia was leading by 12 points, even though thousands of mailed-in ballots are outstanding.
Winning this seat is extra sweet for Republicans given Hillary Clinton won it in 2016, and California’s 25th district is the type of suburban area where the battle for the House will be waged. Also, even in competitive races, it’s getting harder and harder for Republicans in California to unseat Democrats.
So it’s tempting to use this high-profile win by Republicans as a major data point in the battle for the majority of the House of Representatives in November. But reading too much into a Republican victory here would be a mistake. Here’s why.There’s a case to make that this suburban seat could be a bellwether in a normal election, but this is not a normal election.
Plus, special elections don’t typically get as high a turnout as a regular election. It’s May, and voters just aren’t thinking about elections. Also, a lower turnout tends to indicate a Republican victory since that party’s voters are older, less transient and more reliable to vote at all times of the year. Furthermore, that this election is happening in the middle of a pandemic makes the results difficult to assess and extrapolate.
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