Analysis: Why possible Democratic Senate candidates shouldn’t necessarily balk at running in red states
Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks during the National Action Network Convention in New York on April 3. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow May 13 at 1:19 PM For Democrats, the obvious best-case result from the 2020 election is that President Trump is defeated and Democrats retake the Senate while holding the House. The worst case involves Trump being reelected.
If you’re thinking about running for Senate in, say, Montana — where Trump will almost certainly win in 2020 — that’s daunting. Are Trump voters going to cast a ballot for Bullock? Another thing that happened in 2018 is that the margin of support between the presidential and Senate candidates in each race widened after narrowing very consistently since 2004. In other words, not only have red states been electing Republicans to the Senate more consistently , the margins by which those Senate candidates win have mirrored one another more closely.We can look at this another way.
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