After China's reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy.
"As Germany is more exposed to gas risks than the euro zone as a whole, it suggests that the euro zone likely did not fare worse than Germany late last year and may thus have avoided a significant contraction in Q4 GDP," Schmieding said.
Instead of a cumulative real GDP decline of 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, Berenberg now forecasts only a 0.3% decline over the period. Berenberg therefore raised its calls for the annual average change to real GDP in 2023 from a 0.2% shrinkage to 0.3% growth.The last six months, we've seen inflation come down consistently by every measure, says Contrast Capital's InsanaThe German investment bank also upped its 2023 U.K. forecast from a 1% contraction for the year to a 0.8% contraction, citing Brexit, the legacy of former prime minister Liz Truss' disastrous economic policy and a tighter fiscal policy for the U.K.
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