As many African nations have emerged from strict lockdown measures over the month of July, coronavirus cases have accelerated across the continent, casting doubt over the prospect of an imminent economic recovery.
With South Africa's reintroduction of restrictions in July likely denting the recovery, Capital Economics' Mobility Tracker suggests that activity is still 35% below pre-virus levels, and Jackson projected that the weak recovery may prompt more rate cuts from the South African Reserve Bank than markets are pricing in.
Fellow oil exporter Angola has suffered similar challenges which have compounded an already deepening recession which began before the pandemic hit. However in East Africa, Kenya's latest national accounts data offered some cause for optimism, though a recent extension of containment measures may weigh on the recovery, while Ugandan activity indicators have shown the beginning of a recovery in June.
"New data released by the South African Medical Research Council shows that South Africa witnessed some 17,000 extra deaths from natural causes or 59 percent more than would normally be expected between early May and mid-July, suggesting many more people are dying of Covid-19 than shown in official figures."
"African finance ministers seem blind to the potential threat to their economies and many governments have committed to further unfunded spending on infrastructure projects which will balloon their budget deficits and mount the debt burden to unsustainable levels," Besseling said.
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