As the United States and China remain deadlocked in a deepening dispute over trade and technology, some experts say Taiwan's value as a bargaining chip has increased.
"If anyone wants to separate Taiwan from the country, the Chinese military will resolutely defend the unity of our motherland at all costs," Shao added.The U.S. using Taiwan as a card is a new factor in the dynamic of the trilateral relationship that "really did not exist" before Presidentcame into power, said Bonnie Glaser, senior advisor for Asia at Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies .
"My hunch is that it was publicized this time via intentional leak from one or both sides to signal to China that the upgrade in U.S.-Taiwan relations is here to stay," he added.Taiwan is set to have its presidential elections in January 2020 — and experts said the polls would likely determine the direction of cross-strait ties.
"I think the Chinese would be worried that there's always this potential for things to go in a very negative direction because the combination of Trump being president and the possibility that Tsai gets re-elected … could really embolden Tsai to move toward the direction of independence," she added. "The Taiwanese have been observing how China's 'One Country, Two Systems' approach has worked out in Hong Kong, and it isn't too inspiring," Grossman added.A 'small' risk of escalation
"I would say the risk has escalated under Tsai from maybe a 1% to 5% chance of armed conflict," Grossman added. "But that's still uncomfortably high considering that China has nuclear weapons and the U.S., also with nukes, would likely intervene to save Taiwan were China to invade or attack the island."
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