Astronomers Prepare for the Next Thousand Years of Hazardous Asteroid Impacts - by PaulMattSutter
over enormous timescales. A slight difference in the amount of heating that an asteroid receives from the Sun, or an unexpected tug from Jupiter, could send an asteroid on a trajectory that in a few thousand years ends up intersecting the Earth.
The astronomers studied the closest possible encounter between the known hazardous NEOs and the Earth. They particularly examined how this closest distance changes over the course of hundreds and thousands of years. They did this through a series of simulations that mapped out as many possible orbital trajectories as possible given uncertainties in the current orbital positions and velocities of the NEOs.
The astronomers identified one particular NEO, Asteroid 7482, as especially hazardous. This asteroid will spend a significant amount of time near the Earth for the next millennium. While that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will strike our planet, it does mean that this rock poses the greatest chance of a collision within the next thousand years.
Altogether the astronomers identified 28 candidates that have a non-zero probability of a “deep encounter,” which means they will pass within . None of these objects may hit the Earth in the next hundred or a thousand years, but if we are to survive long-term, we definitely need to pay attention to them.
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