The $AUDUSD pair has defied gravity in the past few days as global commodities rise.
is one of the most endowed countries in the world. It has vast coal, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and aluminum. Therefore, the country does well when the commodities market is flourishing. This is why Australia is often seen as a barometer of commodities.
In the past few weeks, the prices of most commodities has jumped sharply as the crisis in Ukraine continues. For example, the price of natural gas has risen to a record high because Russia is the biggest supplier in Europe. Iron ore, copper, coal, and gold have also surged. As a result, the closely watched Bloomberg Commodity Index has jumped to the highest level in over a decade.
Still, like all countries, Australia will suffer quite a bit as prices increase. For one, the country is a leading importer of crude oil, meaning that its positives in other commodities will be offset by oil. At the same time, since the country has an open economy, it means that it will see higher inflation. In its meeting last week, the RBA estimated that inflation will remain above 3% for a while.
The AUD/USD pair also rose even after the strong jobs numbers from the United States. Data showed that the economy added more than 600k jobs in February while the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.8%, which was the lowest level since the pandemic started. Therefore, judging by Jerome Powell’s statement, there is a likelihood that the Fed will be more hawkish than the RBA.The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months.
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