Many analysts are keeping the faith with the Australian and New Zealand dollars,...
SYDNEY - Many analysts are keeping the faith with the Australian and New Zealand dollars, projecting moderate gains in coming months even as markets move aggressively to price in the risk of interest rate cuts in both countries.
The median forecast was also for $0.7200 in six months and $0.7400 for a year ahead, again unmoved from the prior poll. The futures market has fully priced in a quarter-point cut in the 1.5 percent cash rate for October this year, compared to February 2020 at the start of the week. A further move to 1.0 percent is priced as a 50-50 chance.
Robert Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said the sheer speed and scale of the shift means the market may be due for a pause. The median prediction was also kind to the kiwi, putting it at $0.6800 in three months and six months, and $0.7000 on a one-year view. The three-month view has firmed slightly and the rest unchanged from the previous poll.
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