That the BEV market share will only be 50% in 2030 is very unlikely. It is a denial of the disruption of the car market that is coming.
are publishing their plans for battery factories, announcing new fully electric platforms and models, and retrofitting their factories.
These smart people in government and industry did not ask themselves why half of car buyers would choose tailpipe vehicles while the other half would buy vehicles without a tailpipe. This is not politics, where the people are not really interested and can be led by the nose by simple slogans. When buying an automobile, they know what they are doing. In 2030, both options are well understood.
Other carmakers will see the same improvements in production and design. Years before 2030, the fully electric versions of all types of cars and trucks will become both cheaper and better than their competing versions with a tailpipeIt is not like in the previous decade, when only green, rich, coastal lefties where willing to buy those newfangled contraptions. Now everybody knows the benefits and drawbacks of the different choices.
When the differences are well understood, and one powertrain is much better than the alternative, the market will choose the better offering. It will not be 50%. Demand will be close to 100% for the superior new technology.
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