Vincent Deluard of INTL FCStone outlines four market headwinds that could simultaneously wreak havoc on stocks this fall.
macro strategist is staunchly negative on the equity market in the medium term, even if that means his bear forecast has to weather more share gains over the next few months.. He thinks the posturing could deliver just enough good news to keep stocks climbing, backstopped by a reluctance from both sides to escalate matters much further.
If Deluard sounds bemused by the entire situation, that's because he is. He's focused on the longer term — a future he sees filled with an unfortunate amalgamation of negative factors.So what exactly can stock investors expect to contend with in the fall of 2019? Allow Deluard to outline four main headwinds.Deluard argues that analysts are setting investors up for disappointment with their expectations for a sharprebound.
"If margins fail to expand, companies will need to give much lower guidance as they report second quarter earnings in the summer and/or disappoint analysts in the third and fourth quarter," he said. As past instances of downward revisions are any indication, the stock prices of the companies involved could take a swift beating.After a company reports earnings, they're prohibited from buying back shares in what's known as a"blackout" period. Deluard notes that one of these spans is set to fall in the first couple weeks of October, after a majority of companies have reported.
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