Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Lichtman himself offers a note of caution in his video for the Times. "There are forces at play outside the keys," he said, such as voter suppression and potential Russian election meddling.
Here's where Trump and Biden stand in Lichtman's model, along with Lichtman's responses from the video: 1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election.4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession.6.
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