Booster shots are easy money for Pfizer and Moderna, writes rob_cyran for Breakingviews
just found an additional pot of gold. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday authorized a third dose of their coronavirus vaccines for immunocompromised people. That’s about 3% of Americans, but broader use is probably coming soon. Both companies will benefit, but Moderna’s roughly $160 billion market capitalization depends on it more.
If the goal is to end the pandemic, though, booster shots aren’t the best use of vaccines. Pfizer cited a study that showed the efficacy of two doses of its vaccine declined over time to 84% from 96%. A few percentage points are nice, but the gains from giving jabs to the unvaccinated are far greater, which is why the World Health Organization has asked governments to hold off on boosters until more people receive initial doses.
Pfizer's $264 billion market value accounts for a lot more than just its vaccines. Though it has big plans, Moderna remains largely focused on Covid jabs for now. It’s valued at about 7 times estimated revenue over the next 12 months, according to data from Refinitiv. That’s almost twice the multiple accorded to Pfizer and other peers. Even on that generous valuation metric, Moderna's worth depends on finding over $20 billion of sales annually.
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