Statistics are impossible to ignore. Wakefield is Labour's first by-election victory since 2012. The Lib Dems' win in Tiverton and Honiton - an almost 30% swing away from the Tories - is the largest percentage loss for the Tories at any by-election, and one of the largest since the war.
There could well be an inquest into whether it was right to pressure former Tiverton MP Neil Parish to stand down.No doubt a whole host of Tory MPs will repeat the mantra that the Labour margin of victory might have been bigger.The Liberal Democrats'
- an almost 30% swing away from the Tories - is the largest percentage loss for the Tories at any by-election ever, and one of the largest since the war.This is no predictor of what will happen at a general election, as Lib Dem resources would be far more thinly spread during a national vote. But it shows that last year's Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire results were not anomalies and voters in the safest of Tory seats can be persuaded to think again about supporting the Conservatives.Labour lost their deposit in Tiverton because, it would appear, so many switched to the Lib Dems to oust Johnson. This is not evidence of a pact, although it did not go unnoticed. The Labour MP for Exeter Ben Bradshaw appeared to encourage voters in Tiverton to support the Lib Dems.
It's these two lessons that will provide most pause for thought for the Tories. Whether they will or can do anything about this remains to be seen.
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