Strikingly, Jair Bolsonaro remains popular among young Brazilians. In a recent poll, 57% of 16- to 24-year-olds said they would still vote for him, the highest share of any age group
At first glance, Lula does not have much to worry about. Mr Bolsonaro’s influence seems to be fading. Nearly 76% of Brazilians polled opposed the invasion of government buildings in January. Prominenthave distanced themselves from the former president, too. Legal troubles may have prolonged Mr Bolsonaro’s stay abroad. He is subject to around a dozen investigations in Brazil on charges ranging from peddling falsehoods ahead of the presidential election to inciting the protests in January .
Anderson Torres, the security chief of Brasília, the capital, and an ally of Mr Bolsonaro, flew to Florida two days before the January protests. Police later found a draft decree in his house, dated from his time as justice minister, that would have allowed Mr Bolsonaro’s administration to overturn the results of the presidential election. Some policemen stood by during the insurrection.
Agribusinesses are also an important part of Brazilian politics: the agribusiness lobby has links to around half of legislators in Congress, up from a fifth in 2010. Many in the sector are wary of Lula, despite the fact that relations with China were cemented under his first two administrations, between 2003 and 2010, which led to a farming boom. Brazil is now the world’s biggest exporter of soyabeans, 70% of which go to China. Under Mr Bolsonaro, diplomatic ties with China were frostier.
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