Ursula von der Leyen has made it clear that unless existing agreements are respected in full, there can be no future deal between the EU and Britain
IT HAS LONG been clear that trade negotiations between Britain and the European Union are making no progress. On the main sticking points, access to British fisheries and the EU’s wish to constrain state subsidies to ensure fair competition, neither side seems ready to compromise.
Northern Ireland was the biggest problem in the first lot of Brexit negotiations, because both sides wanted to avoid border controls with the Irish Republic that might upset the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998. After Boris Johnson took over from Theresa May as prime minister last year, his solution was to keep Northern Ireland alone in line with the EU’s customs code and single-market rules.
Why is Mr Johnson doing this now? The charitable explanation is that he still wants a trade deal, and is merely trying to ratchet up the pressure on EU leaders to make enough concessions to get one. His talk of October 15th as a deadline for agreeing to a deal, after which he would walk away, and his insistence that no deal would be good for Britain are all part of the same tactical game.
Yet if this is tactical manoeuvring, it seems unlikely to work. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, has already said that, unless existing agreements are respected in full, there can be no future deal between the EU and Britain. As the smaller partner facing a much bigger market, Britain has more to lose from the failure to reach a trade deal, which would mean not just new non-tariff barriers but tariffs too.
Moreover, by casting doubt on the implementation of an existing treaty, Britain is inviting not just the EU but the world to see it as an unreliable partner. Its chances of securing a trade deal with America would surely disappear: congressional leaders have already said that, if Brexit upsets the Good Friday agreement, they would veto any free-trade agreement. Other countries can be expected to be similarly dismayed.
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