Nate Silver's baffling NBA model still has the Warriors as a middling team.
, in the early part of the NBA playoffs in April, the Boston Celtics were its overwhelming pick to win the title. This week, the Celtics take the floor in the NBA Finals as Eastern Conference champions, just as numbers-buffet proprietor Nate Silver's projections said they had a 59% chance of doing.
At the start of the playoffs, I made fun of the FiveThirtyEight numbers for being noisy and absurd — fluctuating wildly off the results of single games and illogically rating the Celtics' chances higher than those of all the other top contenders combined. Yet the Celtics did make it out of the East.
Unshaken by Golden State's success , the computer is affirming that ratio even now that other teams have fallen away:the Celtics an 80% chance of winning the Finals to the Warriors' 20%. This does not mean that Silver's computer model got here by being steady or consistent. FiveThirtyEight boasts that its"forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season" and that the system ignores teams' wins and losses in favor of"our NBA player projections, which estimate each player's future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players.
Yet that big data set, rather than generating imperturbable views of each team's essential quality, somehow leaves the machine more fickle than the loudest TV take artist, ready to dump all 50,000 simulations' worth of its previously held opinions as soon as it sees who wins Game One. In early May, one week after FiveThirtyEight had the Celtics at 39%, it panicked and slashed Boston's title chances to 18% — half the chance it gave the Phoenix Suns.
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