Major central banks may be deep into their drive to raise interest rates in hopes of killing inflation, but the endgame remains far from clear as price increases prove harder to slow than expected
The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all still raising rates, and policymakers are open about the massive uncertainty surrounding their projections and the risk they may have to do more than expected.
Her comments were echoed by others who feel the narrative shared by three top central banks of relatively cost-free disinflation rests on shaky ground. Notably, after one of the most violent blows to the global economy, intensifying geopolitical tensions and a still-unresolved war in Europe, Fed policymakers' median estimate of a long-run policy rate consistent with stable inflation remains at 2.5% - the same as it has been since June of 2019, a moment of peak faith in the notion of a largely deflationary world.
The BoE and ECB are likely further from rate-hike pauses, but a Fed halt would send a powerful signal that the era of synchronized tightening is over, with central bankers entering a holding pattern to wait for the impact of tighter financial conditions and normalizing economies to be felt on prices.That is where the data and the narrative part ways.
Martins Kazaks, Latvia's central bank chief, said the risk of a recession was still "non-trivial," with a host of factors still putting pressure on prices.
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