China, Iran and Saudi Arabia all stand to benefit—at least a bit. But the underlying issues have not changed: this agreement is more about perception than reality
striking enough to see two longtime foes sit down together. On March 10th the national-security advisers of Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a seven-year rupture. What made the moment still more remarkable was the venue: not a regional capital, but Beijing. Sitting between the two men was Wang Yi, the top diplomat of China, a country that had heretofore played no significant role in the Middle East’s messy diplomacy.
The diplomatic crisis dates to 2016, when Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran after mobs ransacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad. The attacks followed the Saudi execution of Nimr al-Nimr, a dissident Shia cleric. Things only got worse from there. In 2019 Iranian-made drones struck oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, briefly disabling 6% of the world’s oil output.
The agreement could also have implications for Iran International, a satellite television channel established in London in 2017 that airs relentless criticism of the Iranian regime. The channel’s bosses deny any direct links to the Saudi government. Nonetheless, the Iranian government has demanded that Saudi Arabia rein in the channel.
Still, the deal may lower the chances of a cold war turning hot. The United Arab Emirates has reached a similar conclusion. Last year it restored full relations with Iran, having downgraded them after the attack on Saudi missions in 2016. Thewas unnerved by drone attacks last year on Abu Dhabi, its capital, and worries that it could face retaliation for a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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