China Is Starting to Really Regret Its Friendship With Russia

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China Is Starting to Really Regret Its Friendship With Russia
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Russia was not the first Chinese partner to believe it would win a very fast war and found itself in a hole, but China wasn’t usually pulled into it with them, Andrew Small writes.

The problem Beijing faced in 2022 was that in crucial areas, it was still too soon to make a break with the West. China remained dependent on the U.S. dollar system. For all the speculation about renminbi internationalization, Chinese payment systems, and its new digital currency, China was barely any closer to constructing a resilient alternative financial architecture than it had been in 2014.

As the FBI director, Christopher Wray, noted in a speech: “There were a lot of Western companies that had their fingers still in that door when it slammed shut. If China does invade Taiwan, we could see the same thing again, at a much larger scale. Just as in Russia, Western investments built over years could become hostages, capital stranded, supply chains and relationships disrupted.”

Western companies are grappling with the scenario that they would have to leave China—just as they are now leaving Russia—if China tried to forcibly integrate Taiwan. And it doesn’t help, of course, that China is adopting Russia’s aggressive rhetoric. The effect is the same as from the COVID policy: foreign companies are hitting the pause button. New investments are suspended for the moment...

The changing nature of warfare dictates that Putin cannot win in the true sense of the word... The war is being updated in real time on social media, the impact of the war is expanding from the maritime to land to air transport and gradually affecting regional trade links; transnational capital is being withdrawn and projects are being stalled. War is no longer simply a military conflict but a broad economic war. The issue of territorial borders is no longer the most important aspect.

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