Concerns over energy security appear to be cutting against Xi Jinping’s net zero ambitions — for now
“China always honours its commitments.”
Already, the Beijing office of Greenpeace is sounding the alarm. In the first three months of 2023, provincial governments in China approved more new coal-fired electricity generation than they did in all of 2021, the environmental campaign group said. Now, the consensus view among experts in Beijing is that anxiety over energy security continues to outweigh the climate crisis, says Li Shuo, a Beijing-based senior global policy adviser at Greenpeace. That is despite the negative impact new coal will have on China’s emissions profile and its decarbonisation agenda.
As a result, such a shift will be felt far beyond China. It could hit large chunks of the commodity trade with Russia, Australia and Indonesia, among others. At the same time, though, China’s ascendancy in clean technologies — such as solar, wind and batteries — will reduce costs for countries in the region. Climate activists are also watching to see whether Chinese companies make good on another Xi pledge: to stop funding new coal power stations overseas.
The improved economics of renewables and stored energy, driven by technological advances and significant reductions in solar and battery costs, underpin Goldman’s forecast that, by 2030, China’s combined solar and wind capacity will reach 3.3 terawatts. That is nearly triple the target of Xi’s energy planners in Beijing.
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