China's economy is expected to recover steadily in the rest of the year, boosted by stimulus measures to reverse the damage from the coronavirus crisis, but weak global demand and rising Sino-U.S. tensions are key risks, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
BEIJING - China’s economy is expected to recover steadily in the rest of the year, boosted by stimulus measures to reverse the damage from the coronavirus crisis, but weak global demand and rising Sino-U.S. tensions are key risks, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
But that pace would still be the weakest since 1976 - the final year of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. Manufacturing and construction have snapped back relatively quickly, thanks largely to a massive infrastructure push and a rebound in homebuilding. But the services sector has lagged, with the catering, hospitality and entertainment sectors struggling to get back to normal amid worries of a resurgence of coronavirus cases and cautious consumer sentiment.
Deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing are also clouding the outlook, though a Phase 1 trade deal signed earlier this year still appears to be intact. Analysts expect China will lower its one-year loan prime rate by another 10 basis points to 3.75% by the end of 2020. It has been cut by 46 bps since last August.
“That should allow the PBOC to step back from easing and instead focus on the financial risks that have accumulated this year.”
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