There is one crucial area in which China will struggle to match America for many years, if not decades: experience
and an American government bent on curbing the People’s Liberation Army’s access to advanced Western technology. America is also overhauling its armed forces and galvanising alliances to prepare for. Yet there is still plenty of evidence that, in military terms, Chinese power is far from topping out.
Even if his economy grows slower than forecast, Mr Xi has considerable leeway to divert resources to the armed forces from the civilian economy. And within the armed forces, he can prioritise areas that he considers more strategically important, for example by downsizing the army, which accounts for almost half of theDefence spending does not always translate into military power. That depends on many other factors, including technology, alliances and goals.
Even assuming low defence-budget growth, China’s navy would still grow to an estimated 356 ships by 2033, adding three carriers and nine big amphibious ships, according to the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments , a think-tank in Washington that has designed a digital tool for assessing China’s military procurement choices.
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