Climate change will increase pressure on species to migrate, bringing thousands of new chances for viruses to jump from one species to another in the coming decades.
to novel places where they will mingle with other species for the first time.
"This [study] is really stressing that there are lots of cross species transmission events that are happening now, and many more that can happen as environments are changing," says Thomas Gillespie, a disease ecologist at Emory University who was not part of the new study.A pathogen's ability to jump from one species to another depends on whether the hosts have a chance to interact and how similar the two host species are to one another.
Most jumps to new species are "dead ends" for viruses — they don't make their hosts sick and fail to spread. But those that do can be devastating.The new study models how the ranges of mammal species, which are hosts to viruses that are most likely to spill over to humans, might change under different climate and land use scenarios for the year 2070.
For example, several bat species could carry Ebola from West Africa to East Africa, where they would interact with new species and create opportunities for spillover to humans.
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