All is not well in Bitcoin derivatives land, new data from ArcaneResearch reveals.
In its
issued Aug. 23, analysis firm Arcane Research painted a worrying picture of morale among BTC futures participants.during June’s BTC price drop, which has since held as a macro bottom, Bitcoin derivatives have not been the same.Futures basis — the difference between futures contract prices and the Bitcoin spot price — is already back at lows only seen during June’s dip to $17,600.
“Overall, the current futures basis sits at levels only experienced briefly during the June crash,” Arcane confirmed, adding that the data is “indicative of a very bearish sentiment among futures traders.”Beating out prior lows from July 2021, those contracts now trade at their biggest-ever discount to spot price.
“Overall, CME’s futures have tended to trade at a discount in the last two months but saw a solid short-lived recovery during the early August strength in the market,” the report continued.Arcane argued that “structural effects” within the derivatives market could go some way to explaining the behavior, but that “worsening liquidity or general de-risking” were both still a risk.
“While BTC derivatives might signal a climate ripe for a short squeeze, the choppy trading range alongside global market turmoil speaks in favor of conservative positioning and gradual accumulation in the spot market,” it concluded.its application for a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund in June, meanwhile, the largest institutional Bitcoin investment vehicle continues to struggle.The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is still trading at more than a 30% discount to the Bitcoin spot price.
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