How well the economy holds up will largely depend on how consumer spending holds up under the pressure of higher prices and higher interest rates, one expert said.
Colorado’s economy will slow noticeably in the first half of the year, before heating up again in the second half. And should that slowdown turn into a recession, it will likely be mild, short-lived and without widespread job losses, according to the“I can’t say with certainty we will have a recession.
“The issue is the same issue as last year — not having enough people to take the jobs,” Wobbekind said. Employers have some cushion to eliminate openings before they cut staff, and if they believe any downturn will be short, they may try to hold onto the workers they have. Colorado’s rate of job growth should drop to 2%, under half of the 4.4% rate of growth expected this year. Unlike the 5% decline in jobs measured in 2020, next year won’t be a negative one for jobs, and that is key.
Wage growth hasn’t kept up with price growth and consumers are filling the gap by spending down savings and taking on more debt. More people are taking on second jobs. The question is how long they can sustain it, and so far they have proven unexpectedly resilient. Staying resilient will depend on them staying employed.
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