A narrow win by the Democrat might embolden challengers. But toppling a sitting governor is tough.
In 2002, running for reelection, California Gov. Gray Davis faced a hapless Republican opponent by the name of Bill Simon Jr.
When election day arrived, however, the results were stunning. After several cliffhanging hours in which the lead traded hands several times, Davis prevailed by a mere 47% to 42%.Which may sound paradoxical, but can be easily explained: Complacency and overconfidence among Democrats almost cost Davis a second term. Ultimately, those factors led to his recall less than a year later.
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