Recession of some sort next year is fast becoming consensus - to such an extent that financial markets could find themselves whiplashed if it doesn't materialise.
The gist of most 2023 outlooks is for a year of contracting activity at some point, disinflation and peaking interest rates. The investment upshot is a bias for bonds, a snubbing of the overvalued dollar and a volatile year for equities that will struggle to get much beyond current levels in 12 months.
And leaves investors mulling the chances of either the fabled "soft landing" - that somehow gets inflation back down without a major downturn - or some protracted scorched earth policy by central banks if persistent growth keeps price elevated. Many economists now assume the euro zone and British economies - worst affected by the Ukraine-related energy shock and cost of living squeeze - are already in the throes of recession.
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