Benchmark oil prices were largely unchanged after Sunday's OPEC⁺ meeting at which Saudi Arabia said it would make a voluntary unilateral cut of 1 million barrels per day for the month of July.
In the physical oil market, where any short-term production cut should have the greatest and most immediate impact, the calendar spreads between nearby months strengthened only slightly.
Both remained below recent highs of 60-70 cents recorded after OPEC⁺ unexpectedly announced the last round of output cuts in early April. The tightening of both physical and futures spreads following the unilateral Saudi production cut announced at the OPEC⁺ meeting on June 4 was much smaller than that which followed the unexpected cuts on April 2.
So although the cut has had little discernible impact on spreads and outright prices, it is likely both would have slumped further if it had not been announced.There is evident frustration among OPEC⁺ officials about the continued slide in prices despite three rounds of cuts announced since October 2022.
The implied production-consumption-inventory trajectory for the whole of 2023 has softened considerably since November 2022, translating into lower prices and weaker calendar spreads: Russia’s crude and fuel oil exports have remained high despite European Union and U.S. sanctions and the country’s promises to other OPEC⁺ members to reduce output.
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