Projections of deaths from COVID-19 vary wildly. How are we to make sense of the differences? One researcher has developed one model that compares and merges them all.
More than 82,000 people in the U.S. have died of COVID-19 as of Tuesday. How many more lives will be lost? Scientists have built dozens of computational models to answer that question. But the profusion of forecasts poses a challenge: The models use such a wide range of methodologies, formats, and time frames, it's hard to get even a ballpark sense of what the future has in store.a biostatistician at University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Still, says Reich, that remains a large difference. Also, he says, some of the models are gyrating fairly significantly from week to week. But how do we make sense of these COVID-19 projections if the models can see-saw so abruptly from week-to-week? That's where Reich's"ensemble" model may be helpful. It's a strategy that forecasters use regularly to model not just disease outbreaks, but other phenomena ranging from weather to electoral outcomes.
Reich thinks he can still improve his ensemble model. For instance, at the moment Reich is giving equal weight to each of the forecasts that go into it. But soon he hopes to give more weight to those that are proving more accurate — an approach that he uses in his ensemble models for flu.
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