Credit Suisse will not be the last domino to fall in this banking crisis

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Credit Suisse will not be the last domino to fall in this banking crisis
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Regulators' massive response indicates a financial system in the early stages of distress.

The S&P 500 SPX has rallied since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last month, but stock investors are kidding themselves if they think the banking crisis is over.

In fact, the current crisis looks far more serious than is evident. This warning comes from a newly published study of 800 years of banking crises, which suggests that both the U.S. economy and stock market will be below-average performers for some time to come. One data point that is particularly revealing about the current crisis’ severity is the magnitude of banking regulators’ recent interventions. For example, the combined value of the emergency lending that the Swiss National Bank extended to Credit Suisse CS and to UBS UBS UBSG , which acquired Credit Suisse, is equivalent to more than 25% of that country’s GDP. That’s one of the biggest interventions in the professors’ entire database; the median intervention’s magnitude, for example, is just 1.

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