Fending off the Republican advance in South Texas this fall was already going to be a taller-than-usual order for Democrats. But few Democrats anticipated it would be this hard.
But they have multiple other vulnerabilities to contend with: In the 28th Congressional District, the FBI raided Cuellar’s home and campaign just ahead of his primary campaign. In the neighboring 15th Congressional District, Gonzalez is vacating his once-safe, now-ripped-apart-by-Republicans district for safer ground, making it even harder for Democrats to hold on to his old seat.
Per Wasserman, who rates the competitiveness of U.S. House races for a living, Democratic circumstances are becoming dire. He announced in March 2021 that he wouldn’t seek reelection in his district. But he upgraded his retirement announcement to a full-blown resignation on March 31, vacating his office nine months earlier than expected.
There’s also little incentive for other Democrats to run for the special election. At best a candidate would be able to hold the office for a few months while not being allowed to run for reelection for the full term in November, since that primary has already been settled. Gonzalez won the Democratic primary for Vela’s seat in March.
“And if Mayra Flores wins, it gives her a significant jump-start of a fall campaign against a weak candidate in Vicente Gonzalez,” he added. The most formidable Democrat running in the special election is former Cameron County justice of the peace and commissioner Dan Sanchez, who announced his own campaign last week.
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Democrats are in danger of losing three congressional strongholds in South TexasThe seats are held by U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen. A third belonged to Filemon Vela of Brownsville, who stepped down. SanAntonio SATX SanAntonioTX SouthTexas TexasPolitics
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