Analysis: In a new national survey, the Democratic Party’s primary voters prefer female candidates of color in 2020
field in modern American history. Two are black men; one is a black and Asian American woman; four are white women; there’s a Latino man, an Asian American man, a Pacific Islander woman and a white gay man.
Evaluating voter attitudes is tricky. All candidates present a bundle of characteristics that are often correlated. Biden is not only a white man, he is also older with a lot of political experience. Pete Buttigieg is gay, but he is also a white man, young and religious. For this reason, it can be hard to disentangle to what extent each candidate characteristic influences vote choice.
What we found was that, at least in the 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, candidates are likely to be viewed more favorably for being nonwhite and nonmale—but not for being nonstraight. Fascinating results emerged when we analyzed specific subsets of the Democratic primary electorate. Self-identified very liberal voters—a fourth of Democrats who voted in the 2016 primaries—showed a very strong preference for women candidates and they also preferred gay over straight candidates . Democrats who never attend religious services—about a third in our sample and—showed an even stronger preference for gay candidates: plus 5 percentage points.
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