Democrats lead Republicans by roughly 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s generic ballot tracker—just a point less than their lead on Election Day 2018. But how confident should Democrats be that this lead will hold?
For the average margin at six, four, and two months from Election Day, we included all polls fielded around the relevant time point . We also calculated an average for each pollster in a given period so a pollster wasn’t overrepresented, then averaged those averages. Figures are rounded.Four points may not sound like a lot, but that sort of shift in voter preferences could make or break the election for candidates in the closely fought seats that.
Of course, there’s no guarantee the generic ballot will move much this time around, but it’s still worth thinking about how a change in the national environment could make the 2020 House race more of a toss-up. Take 2016: Republicans went from trailing by 6 points in the generic ballot four months before the election to trailing by just 1 point in the final 10 days. Notably, they ended up narrowly winning the House popular vote, too — 48 percent to 47 percent.
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