An intriguing chart shows a close relationship between U.S. 10-year Treasurys and Bitcoin halving price rallies.
First and foremost, it’s important to emphasize that the author asserts that the correlation should not be taken as a “direct causal link between yields and BTC price.” Furthermore, TMXC argues that over 92% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been issued, suggesting that daily issuance is unlikely to be the factor “propping up the asset’s price.”First, it’s essential to recognize that human perception is naturally inclined to spot correlations and trends, whether real or imaginary.
Consequently, attempting to attribute Bitcoin’s bull run to a specific event with an undefined end date lacks statistical merit.Therefore, even if one concedes the idea of “relative” local lows on the 10-year yield chart, there’s no compelling evidence that Bitcoin’s halving date directly impacted its price, at least in the subsequent four months.
For instance, during that time, the Russell 2000 Small-Capitalization index outperformed S&P 500 companies by a significant margin, with a 14.5% difference in performance.This data suggests that investors were seeking higher-risk profiles, given that the median market capitalization of Russell 2000 companies stood at $1.25 billion, significantly lower than the S&P 500's $77.2 billion.
In conclusion, charts can be misleading when analyzing extended time periods. Linking Bitcoin’s rally to a solitary event lacks statistical rigor when the upswing generally initiates three or four months after the said event.
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